Prepare now, not later: what El Niño could mean for New Zealand farmers

“We know the average outcome of El Niño, but no El Niño is average.”

That is the message from Earth Sciences New Zealand Chief Scientist Weather and Seasonal Forecasting Chris Brandolino, as farmers begin preparing for what could be one of the strongest El Niño events on record.

Earth Sciences New Zealand has confirmed El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and expects the climate driver to strongly influence New Zealand’s weather through spring, summer and potentially into autumn next year.

For farmers, the message is not to panic, but to plan.

“You’re much better off having a plan and not needing it than needing a plan and not having it,” Brandolino says.

Federated Farmers National Vice President and adverse events spokesperson Sandra Faulkner agrees.

“Do not ignore this thing,” she says.

More than just a drought forecast

El Niño is one of the world’s major climate drivers, originating thousands of kilometres away in the tropical Pacific Ocean where sea surface temperatures become unusually warm.

That warming alters tropical rainfall patterns, which in turn influence the jet stream and atmospheric circulation reaching New Zealand.

Brandolino compares it to a major economic decision.

“It’s like adjusting the official cash rate by 100 basis points. That’s a big macro change that filters down to individual households.

“El Niño is similar. It’s a large-scale climate driver, but every farm experiences the effects a little differently.”

The event is already strengthening rapidly, with Earth Sciences New Zealand saying it is likely to rival, or even exceed, the strongest El Niño events on record, including 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015.

Historical El Niño events show no two seasons are the same. While both 1972/73 and 1997/98 were strong El Niño events, rainfall patterns varied considerably across New Zealand, highlighting why forecasts should be used as a guide rather than a guarantee. Credit: Earth Sciences New Zealand.

Why confidence doesn’t mean certainty

While scientists are highly confident this will be a very strong El Niño, predicting exactly how it will affect every region remains more difficult.

“If I’m handing out slices of blame pie,” Brandolino says, “El Niño typically gets about 25 percent.”

In other words, El Niño is an important contributor to New Zealand’s weather, but it is not the only influence.

Climate change, regional sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean Dipole and Antarctic weather patterns all continue to shape seasonal conditions.

Brandolino says history provides guidance, but not certainty.

“Every El Niño comes with its own personality.”

What farmers should expect

For eastern regions, particularly Canterbury and Marlborough, the long-range outlook is familiar.

Long-range modelling favours more persistent westerly winds through spring, bringing drier conditions, lower soil moisture and increased wildfire risk.

It is not simply the lack of rainfall that concerns Brandolino.

“The westerly winds scoop up moisture from the Tasman Sea and dump it over the West Coast. By the time that air reaches Canterbury, there often isn’t much moisture left.”

Those northwest winds are expected to become stronger and more frequent through late winter and spring.

Combined with periods of unusually warm temperatures, they can rapidly dry soils, increase evaporation and raise wildfire risk.

Meanwhile, western regions, including the West Coast, Southland and parts of Central Otago, are expected to experience increased rainfall.

Planning early could protect both production and profit

Faulkner says one of the biggest differences between this El Niño and previous droughts is the quality of information farmers now have available.

“We now have tools at our disposal that we didn’t have in previous droughts,” she says.

That includes weather forecasting, soil moisture monitoring, facial eczema spore counting, farm apps and other management tools.

“We need to make the most of those.”

On her own farm, Faulkner says drought planning is deliberately simple.

“We have a one-page drought plan that sits in a desk drawer and gets pulled out whenever a dry season looks possible,” she says.

“We’ll sit down with the calendar and work through trigger points. If it hasn’t rained by a certain date, we know which stock we’ll sell first. If it still hasn’t rained by the next date, we know what the next step is.”

Rather than waiting until feed runs short or markets become flooded with stock, Faulkner believes farmers should decide in advance what actions they will take if dry conditions develop.

“The important thing is making those decisions before you’re under pressure.

“You can always put that drought plan back in the drawer if it rains. If the warnings are wrong, then we all win.”

She says moving early can also protect farmers financially.

“That’s why planning and moving early is really important. You need to catch those who are still buying because they still have grass.

“If that dry creeps across from east to west, suddenly you are really boxed in.”

Feed could tighten quickly

Faulkner says many East Coast farmers have had a good pasture season so far and some may be carrying healthy stores of supplementary feed.

But winter is only just beginning.

“Anyone feeding out regularly will go into spring and summer having used a lot of that,” she says.

Recent severe weather through parts of the South Island may also affect feed reserves, with some farmers using winter supplements earlier than expected to get stock through difficult conditions.

“There are all manner of implications that come from these weather events through winter, and they may impact feed availability come spring and summer.”

Current modelling suggests eastern and northern regions are more likely to experience reduced rainfall, increased winds, higher temperatures and elevated wildfire risk this spring, while western parts of the South Island are expected to receive above-average rainfall. Credit: Earth Sciences New Zealand.

Every El Niño tells a different story

One of the biggest misconceptions, Brandolino says, is assuming every strong El Niño unfolds the same way.

Historical events show common themes, but also significant differences.

During the powerful 1972-73 event, much of New Zealand experienced widespread dryness.

By contrast, the 1982-83 event brought wetter conditions to parts of lower Canterbury and eastern Otago.

“It’s like a family,” Brandolino says.

“They all share the same surname, but every member has a different personality.”

Historical patterns remain valuable because they show what is most likely, but they should be treated as guidance rather than certainty.

Federated Farmers National Vice President and adverse events spokesperson Sandra Faulkner says farmers should not ignore the potential impact of El Niño. Supplied.

Faulkner says previous droughts still carry important lessons.

“I watched my parents farm through some horrific droughts in the late eighties,” she says.

“They were dealing with everything against them: 20-plus percent interest rates and drought.

“That is soul-destroying, and it is dangerous for farmers.

“Ignore history at your peril.”

The message for farmers

Brandolino’s advice is straightforward.

Develop a plan now.

“If dryness develops on your farm, you already know what worked before. You’re much better off having that plan ready.”

Faulkner’s message is much the same.

“Plan, plan and plan again.

“Use the technology, take heed of the warnings and plan.”

She also says farmers should not underestimate the emotional impact of a dry season forecast.

“All of these warnings come with anxiety, and anxiety adds weight to any concerns you’re already carrying.

“Never feel that there is nobody there to hear you.

“When it comes to the emotional wellbeing of people on the land, that connection is just so important.

“Please do reach out. We’re all in this to help one another.”

While El Niño is expected to peak around December, its effects are likely to continue through summer and may persist into autumn if the system reaches the intensity scientists currently expect.

What El Niño could mean for your region

Likely drier

Canterbury, Marlborough, eastern Otago, Hawke’s Bay, Gisborne, Wairarapa, Auckland, Northland and Bay of Plenty.

Likely wetter

West Coast, Southland and parts of Central Otago.

Nationwide

Stronger, more persistent westerly winds, higher wildfire risk in eastern regions, earlier irrigation demand where river flows decline, and greater weather variability through spring.

Five things farmers can do now

1.Develop or review your drought plan.

2.Set trigger dates for stock, feed and water decisions before conditions deteriorate.

3.Review supplementary feed reserves and consider your contingency options.

4.Keep an eye on seasonal outlooks, soil moisture and river levels using reputable sources.

5.Reach out early to advisers, neighbours, Federated Farmers or Rural Support if the pressure starts to build.