Record avocado crop puts focus on productivity and demand
New Zealand avocado growers are heading into what could be a record season, with almost eight million trays expected to reach domestic and export markets in 2026-27.
The crop is forecast to be worth around $160 million at wholesale level, with close to five million trays destined for export and almost three million expected to be consumed at home.
But NZ Avocado chief executive Brad Siebert says producing more fruit is only part of the equation.
The challenge is making sure growers can remain productive and profitable while continuing to build demand both at home and overseas.
Despite the size of the upcoming crop, Siebert does not believe the industry is facing an oversupply problem.
“The demand is there from export,” he said.
More than five million trays are expected to head offshore this season, compared with last year when volumes were split roughly evenly between domestic and export markets.
New Zealand’s domestic market also remains particularly valuable because the country does not import fresh avocados.
“We have the opportunity to sell all the avocados we grow, which is a great equation to have,” Siebert said.
“It’s just making sure we grow that consumption rate, returns to growers increase and Kiwis get more avocados.”
New Zealanders currently consume around 3kg of avocado per person each year, compared with about 4.7kg in Australia.
NZ Avocado estimates that lifting consumption closer to Australian levels could increase the domestic wholesale market from around $60 million to more than $90 million annually.
Siebert said Australia had invested heavily in building its domestic market because its ability to export was more constrained.
At the other end of the scale, consumption in Mexico sits at around 12kg per person, while China consumes less than 0.1kg.
That variation shows there is room to grow both domestic and international demand, he said.
For growers, however, one of the biggest challenges remains productivity.
“Top of the list is productivity, making sure we can be as productive as we can on every orchard to meet that demand,” Siebert said.
New Zealand has more than 1500 avocado orchards, with growers operating across a wide range of scales and growing conditions.
Most commercial production is concentrated in Northland and the Bay of Plenty, with smaller pockets in South Auckland and some suitable microclimates further south.
Siebert said environmental conditions, weather events, orchard management and post-harvest handling all influenced yields and fruit quality.
Looking five years ahead, he wants to see growers of all sizes able to run viable orchards if they are applying best practice.
“I want to see productivity improve, yields across orchards improve,” he said.
“We’re doing a lot of work at the moment around fruit quality and general productivity and making sure our pest management programmes are on point.”
Avocados can also be a difficult crop to manage because of their irregular bearing patterns.
Climate and orchard management can result in one season producing a heavy crop and another being considerably lighter.
Siebert said growers needed to think several years ahead, particularly around pruning and other management decisions.
“It can be challenging if you’re not growing in the right environment and you’re not putting in the best practice.”
The fruit itself also presents logistical challenges.
Avocados remain green on the tree until they are harvested, after which growers and exporters have around 30 days to get them onto a retail shelf.
Cold-chain management can help preserve export fruit during its journey, but there is limited flexibility once harvest begins.
That makes managing timing and quality across the season especially important.
Unlike many horticultural crops, however, New Zealand avocados are harvested across an extended period rather than during one short, intensive seasonal window.
Siebert said that meant the industry generally did not rely heavily on workers employed through the Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme.
Packhouses, growers and contractors were currently able to manage workforce requirements, although larger Northland orchards often used contractors and larger harvest teams.
The extended season also gives growers some flexibility around when fruit is picked.
Some make several picks across the season in an effort to target stronger domestic or export opportunities.
“Some growers hold off and have one or two or three picks across the season to target those opportunities,” Siebert said.
While Hass remains overwhelmingly dominant, accounting for more than 95% of global avocado trade, Siebert said there was also growing interest in other varieties.
Reed avocados, sometimes described as the “cannonball” variety because of their large, round shape, harvest later and can fill a small gap as the Hass season begins to wind down.
For the wider industry, Siebert said the focus remained on improving orchard performance, maintaining fruit quality and ensuring demand kept pace with production.
His longer-term goal is straightforward.
“I’d love to see all of our members, no matter what scale they are, be viable on their orchard,” he said.
“That’s where they’re aiming to get to.”
How to choose a ripe avocado
For Hass avocados, colour is your best guide.
As they ripen, Hass avocados darken from green towards a deep purple-black. Once the skin has darkened, gently check the fruit for a little give beneath the skin.
Avoid squeezing too hard, as this can bruise the flesh.
The area around the small button or stem at the top may soften slightly before the rest of the fruit, but NZ Avocado chief executive Brad Siebert says colour remains the number one indicator for Hass avocados.
Quick guide:
• Bright green and firm: Not ripe yet
• Darker skin with a little give: Ready to eat
• Very soft: Likely overripe
Green-skin varieties are trickier, as they do not change to a dark colour when ripe, so gentle touch becomes more important.
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