Trojan Horses

My daily commute is filling up with glittering signs proclaiming pointless slogans from airbrushed, friendly-looking wannabe politicians angling for my vote. The news is full of stories about the Opportunity Party, while Labour is saying very little, presumably hoping National will lose before they put their foot in their mouth.

Election season must be upon us.

Most policy announcements from the major parties seem to focus on health and the cost of living, which is presumably what their underlings have told them voters care about most. However, this voter wants to know where they stand on environmental policy.

Cost of living promises might win headlines and bribe voters, but they can also act as a Trojan Horse. While everyone is looking the other way, major environmental reforms could quietly make their way through Parliament and have a significant impact on how people farm their land.

While it's understandable that freshwater and climate change are no longer dominating the political conversation, there is a downside. The lack of scrutiny means we have very little idea what a new Government might do in this space, or what that could mean for farmers once they get into power.

At the time of writing, the Natural Environment Bill is still working its way through Parliament, although it may well be law by the time this article is published. It is intended to replace the existing resource management system and create a new planning framework for managing our environment. When in place, it will give Ministers significant power to direct environmental policy as they see fit.

This Government has released an early example of how the new system could operate, but it is only intended to test ideas. Formal consultation is not expected until next year, and a different Government could easily take a different direction.

From what I can tell, most political parties seem keen to keep Freshwater Farm Plans in some form. Most also see room to improve climate policy, although they differ on how far New Zealand's obligations should go and how quickly change should occur.

Meanwhile, MCERT seems to be having kittens about what any weakening of freshwater or climate obligations might mean for trade relationships. At the same time, the organisation is still in nappies itself and working out how to provide robust advice to Ministers on these requirements.

The problem is that most of the important details remain missing. Voters and farmers are being asked to support a major overhaul of environmental regulation without knowing many of the details that will matter most on the ground.

What standards will farmers be expected to meet? Who will enforce them? Will the new regulatory entities have the skills and resourcing needed? What will compliance cost? Nobody seems particularly keen to answer those questions just yet.

That uncertainty doesn't appear to be slowing investment in the dairy sector at the moment. Confidence remains surprisingly strong. But I do wonder how long that optimism can last when there is still such a large black hole sitting where future environmental regulation should be. Maybe the horse has already bolted and future governments will feel compelled to overcorrect. The new legislation will make it easy for them to do so.

Either way, the devil will be in the detail, and so far most political parties seem content to kick that particular can down the road.

Let's see what they come up with over the next few weeks, so I can make a genuinely informed decision about what I'm signing myself up for on 7 November.

After all, nobody likes discovering what's hidden inside the Trojan Horse after it's already inside the gates.

Eva Harris is Principal Environmental Advisor for Enviro Collective